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Analysis

What is Moving average (SMA)?

Sirg'aluvchi o'rtacha (SMA)

In short

The average of the last N closing prices. Smooths out noise to show the trend direction (e.g. the 50- and 200-day).

Also known as: SMA, MA

A simple moving average (SMA) is the plain average of the last N closing prices. It is called "moving" because each new period drops the oldest price and adds the newest, so the average slides along the chart.

Formula

SMA(N) = (C₁ + C₂ + … + Cₙ) ÷ N, where C is the closing price.

Popular periods

  • 20-day — short-term direction (roughly one month of trading).
  • 50-day — the medium-term trend.
  • 200-day — the long-term trend; many investors watch whether price is above or below it.

How it is used

  • Trend filter: price above a rising average is a sign of an uptrend.
  • Dynamic level: in strong trends price often pulls back to the 20- or 50-day average and bounces.
  • Crossovers: the 50-day crossing above the 200-day is a golden cross; crossing below is a death cross.

Limitations

An SMA is built from past prices, so it always lags: it shows a trend change several days after it happens. In sideways markets price crosses the average over and over, producing lots of false signals. When a faster reaction is needed, traders use the EMA.

An uptrend
$100$110$120TrendlineHHHHHHHLHLHL

Each high (HH) and each low (HL) is above the previous one. The blue line is the moving average — it lags behind price.

Buying the pullback in a trend
$55$60$65Stop $58.802R = $63.45HHtouches SMA20

In an uptrend price pulled back from $61.40 to the 20-day average (~$59.07); the pullback candle dipped to $59 and closed green. Entry above its high ($60.31) at $60.35; stop below the pullback low at $58.80 (risk $1.55); 2R target at $63.45.

Example

Illustrative case, a 5-day SMA. The last five closes: $20, $21, $22, $21, $23.

  • Sum: 20 + 21 + 22 + 21 + 23 = $107.
  • SMA(5) = 107 ÷ 5 = $21.40.

The next day the stock closes at $24. The oldest price ($20) drops out and the new one is added:

  • New sum: 21 + 22 + 21 + 23 + 24 = $111.
  • New SMA(5) = 111 ÷ 5 = $22.20.

Price is at $24 and the average at $22.20 — price is above a rising average. Notice also that price rose $1 that day while the average rose only $0.80: it always trails price.

Mistakes and tips

  • Treat the average as a zone, not an exact line — price poking slightly through it and coming back is normal.

  • Don't rely on moving-average crossovers in sideways markets: they generate many false signals.

  • Don't keep changing the period to fit results — common values like 20, 50 and 200 get the most attention.

Frequently asked questions

Why is the 200-day moving average important?
It is a widely used measure of the long-term trend. Many institutional investors and traders watch it, so price often reacts around it.
Which is better, SMA or EMA?
Neither is simply better. The SMA is smoother and gives fewer false signals; the EMA reacts faster but is also more sensitive to noise.

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