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Analysis

What is Wedge?

Pona (wedge)

In short

A pattern whose two boundary lines slope the SAME way and converge. A rising wedge usually breaks down, a falling wedge up — it shows a trend losing momentum.

Also known as: rising wedge, falling wedge, pona

A wedge is a pattern whose two boundary lines slope the same way and converge. The difference from a triangle: in a triangle one line is flat or the lines point in opposite directions, while in a wedge both point up or both point down.

Two types

  • Rising wedge — both highs and lows are rising, but the lows rise faster. Price looks like it's climbing, yet each new high gets only a little further than the last — buyer strength is fading. It usually breaks down.
  • Falling wedge — the mirror: highs and lows are falling, but each new low comes in a smaller step. Sellers are tiring; it usually breaks up.

The logic

A wedge is a picture of a trend losing strength. The move continues, but each step gets smaller. It often comes with divergence: price makes a new high, while a momentum indicator such as RSI makes a lower one.

Signal and target

The signal is a close beyond the lower line (rising wedge) or upper line (falling wedge). A common objective is the level where the wedge began. Wedges also appear as continuation patterns: for example, a small falling wedge in an uptrend works much like a flag.

Rising wedge (at the end of an uptrend)
$90$100$110Target: wedge start $100$110.8ExitVolume

Both lines rise, but the lower one is steeper — every new high comes with a smaller step while volume fades. The lower line broke at $108.8 on volume: an exit signal. The usual target is where the wedge began, $100.

Falling wedge: a buy plan
$40$45$50$55Target 2 $50Target 1 $45.2Stop $40.3Entry $42.6Volume

Both lines slope down, but the upper one is steeper — sellers gain less ground each time. The upper line broke at $41.6: entry $42.6, stop below the wedge's last low ($40.7) at $40.3. Target 1 is the last high inside the wedge, $45.2; target 2 is the wedge start, $50.

Example

Illustrative (rising wedge): a stock climbed from $40 to $52 over two months. Highs: $46 → $49 → $52 (+$3 each). Lows: $40 → $44.50 → $48 (+$4.50, then +$3.50). The line of lows is rising faster than the line of highs — the lines are converging.

  • Price closes below the lower line at $49.50 — a breakdown.
  • Objective: where the wedge began — $40
  • Short stop: above the last high, at $52.20. Risk: $52.20 − $49.50 = $2.70
  • Distance to objective: $49.50 − $40.00 = $9.50 → R:R ≈ 1:3.5

For a trader who is long, it's a signal to exit or raise the stop.

Mistakes and tips

  • Don't mistake a rising wedge for a healthy uptrend: price is rising, but the steps are shrinking.

  • Draw wedge lines through at least two highs and two lows; a third touch on each line makes the pattern more reliable.

  • Confirm the break with a close and compare the objective with nearby support levels.

Frequently asked questions

Is a rising wedge bullish or bearish?
Usually bearish: even though price is rising, the pattern often breaks down because the advance is losing strength.
How is a wedge different from a triangle?
In a wedge both lines slope in the same direction. In a triangle one line is flat or the lines slope in opposite directions.

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